The Rise, Rise and RISE of Apple

Is the news at this point surprising?

Apple's Profit Rises 78% on Appeal of New Devices

Apple's position is further cemented by one simple fact. The iPhone has fundamentally changed the way people operate, i.e. not only the things I can do on a day to day basis while I'm on the move but also when I'm sitting at home. In contrast neither Windows or Mac OS X have fundamentally altered how I've interacted with personal computers for years. While in some cases they do provide interesting back end services such as Windows' Media Center, Netflix's streaming service is the primary manner in which I consume video and I don't need a personal computer for that.

With Apple's latest firmware iOS 4 I leave Skype running on the iPhone in the background all the time. I can make and receive various voice calls and bypass AT&T completely. At the same time Pandora runs in the background streaming music based on previous feedback I've given it. This all the while relaxing on the couch and web surfing. If Pandora isn't doing it for me, I can fire up RemoteX and control WinAmp to start streaming music from various different sites that are in my default playlist. The music then starts over the Klipsch 5.1 speaker system on the PC. If the music streams aren't doing it for me either, I can fire Apple's remote app, search through my entire iTunes music library for a specific musician/song and start playing it:

http://www.apple.com/itunes/remote/

Then again maybe later in the day I decide that I'd rather watch some video content. I can fire up Boxee on the PC, display it on my HDTV and control the experience through my iPhone:

http://blog.boxee.tv/2009/03/15/boxee-iphone-remote-app-available-on-the-app-store/

(Aside: If you haven't tried the latest Boxee beta you're doing yourself a disservice, check it out)

You see it's about choice, choice and even more choice.

This is the fundamental difference between the Apple of old and the Microsoft of old. Many years (+15?) ago Bill Gates used to talk about "information at your fingertips" but his vision was very desktop centric and predated the rise of the World Wide Web which was spearheaded by forces not aligned with Gates' visions and Microsoft's fortes. We've reached a point where it's about consumption at your fingertips. Nowhere is this better showcased than what happened to Flipboard recently:

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/04/flipboard-stumbles-in-its-first-days/


Excerpt:

Flipboard, which uses Amazon Web Services, has been doubling its server capacity each day. The company would not reveal how many people have signed up for the service, but said it is a good percentage of iPad owners, of which there are more than 3.3 million.

Personal computers have been as much about content creation as content consumption which is why a desktop centric approach placed on a small device in the palm of your hand doesn't work and helps explain the runaway success of the iPad.

One other fundamental change Apple has elicited from consumers is they've opened up their wallets. While the sales of software to corporations has been par for the course for decades, consumers became extremely frugal quite some time ago getting very used to the idea of FREE. For example, I can recall the days when you had to pay for anti-virus software for your home computer, there's no reason anyone should pay for anti-virus software today. No doubt this is one factor why CompUSA exited the brick & mortar retail space.

Specifically, the rise of micro-transactions and digital distribution has put an end to the walled garden of various middle men relegating them to the dust bin. With many applications either free or 99 cents, Apple's App Store has ushered a new age where people buy software with no significant concern for the money they spend or the value they derive. After all, if it's a lemon, the most they're out of is 99 cents. Yes, no more $9.95 and $19.95 software specials thank you very much.

As middle men's leverage disappears with new digital distribution, it allows people that actually create products to achieve independent wealth:

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/25/doodle-jump-reaches-five-million-downloads/

The creators of Doodle Jump have sold millions of units. And the math is quite simple, app developers get 70% of the sale which means Doodle Jump's creators are now collectively millionaires and no surprise they quit their day jobs to focus on their new entertainment software business.

This is the kind of story that would never have happened 5 years ago if you were talking mobile applications. It's no surprise that because of stories like this along with the iPhone's market/mindshare, developers have flocked to Apple's platform. It also means that Microsoft, Google, Nokia and RIM (Blackberry) have their work cut out for them trying to establish similar mobile software ecosystems.

While Google has made lots of progress with its Android platform, I have to point out that all of the things I mentioned that I did at home with my iPhone (examples I gave earlier of controlling my PC) have absolutely no reliance on the telephone network (AT&T). Everything I talked about can be done with an iPod Touch or an iPad (via Wifi). Meaning the same software that works on the iPhone works on the latter Apple devices and such a dynamic or complementary ecosystem doesn't exist for other vendors. While there is movement in the Android space with respect to tablets, I'm talking about the here and now.

Which precisely leads into my key point. The reason why Windows has had a vise grip on the desktop is because of its ecosystem of choices. Whether its software drivers to drive an old laser printer to DVD creation software to photo imaging software, you name it, a turnkey solution for the consumer on Windows is probably there.

Switching to the mobile market, until the iPhone came along, there was no such equivalent ecosystem of choices. The telephone companies with their typical lack of vision did not make installing applications easy nor did they pioneer the smart phone category with a partner. Apple created the category and AT&T was willing to go along for the ride. With the introduction of the Apple App Store, seemingly overnight an explosion of choices for consumers became an ecosystem of choices. Which means the average consumer (jailbreakers, hackers, idealists, open source zealots need not apply) stands to lose more peripheral consumption capabilities than gain if they leave Apple's platform. Not being able to do many things you're used to becomes an extremely powerful dissuading force and people are very much creatures of habit further reducing the chances of them jumping ship.

As Microsoft, Google, RIM and Nokia will find, unseating such an ecosystem of choices is not easy. The peripheral advantages often outweigh enticements like "FREE". This is why OpenOffice hasn't suddenly supplanted Microsoft Office despite being "FREE". Or why LINUX desktops haven't supplanted Windows desktops despite, again, being "FREE".

It boils down to the ecosystem of choices and the side effect of having lots of choice (vs. few or no choices).

Microsoft Security Essentials

This weekend I moved away from the freebie AVG as my antivirus software to Microsoft Security Essentials (MSE). This Lifehacker article clinched the deal for me:

http://lifehacker.com/5559102/microsoft-security-essentials-finds-unknown-malware-but-avoids-false-positives

However it was this Arstechnica article that elevated MSE enough in my mind and started me on the road to this decision. Basically a new attack vector was concocted in the wild that bypasses practically all antivirus software, except for MSE:

http://arstechnica.com/microsoft/news/2010/05/microsoft-mse-safe-from-windows-kernel-hook-attack.ars

Here is an article covering the technical details on this new attack vector:

http://arstechnica.com/security/news/2010/05/multicore-cpus-move-attack-from-theoretical-to-practical.ars

Given that Microsoft Security Essentials has better detection of malware than AVG (according to the information presented by Lifehacker, which I trust), fewer false positives, is not vulnerable to kernel hook attacks and last but not least is FREE, I was sold.

MSE is available for Windows XP, Windows Vista and Windows 7.

"Safari 5 tested: Chrome, Opera still have JavaScript edge"

I was pretty sure it wasn't my imagination when I opined that Apple's just released Safari 5 felt significantly faster than Safari 4 on Windows (note the closing paragraph):

http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2010/06/safari-5-tested-chrome-opera-still-have-javascript-edge.ars

Make note of the Sunspider graph, namely IE 8's performance (or lack thereof). IE 9 however seems like it might be worthwhile to use. Yes, necessity or rather, loss of market share in Microsoft's case, is the mother of invention (swift kick in the pants). Just look at the trend for IE on this chart:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Usage_share_of_web_browsers_%28Source_Net_Applications%29.svg

Apple Releases Safari 5 Today

As part of all the noise at the World Wide Developer's Conference today, Apple released the next major version (5.x) of their Safari web browser for the Macintosh and Windows platforms. Safari 5 is now available from Apple's web site:

http://www.apple.com/safari/download/

After some initial empirical testing, Safari 5 (on the PC) feels much faster than Safari 4. It seems Apple made a real attempt at polishing the Windows version of Safari whereas in the past it seemed Apple was releasing a tool so web developers & testers could see how things might look on Mac OS X (the premise being it wasn't readily available). It feels snappy as I write this entry on Blogger.com.

Here's Lifehacker's writeup on Safari 5:

http://lifehacker.com/5557731/first-look-at-whats-new-in-safari-5

Finally, the question of whether to make Safari or any other particular browser my default is irrelevant for me since I use the most excellent Browser Chooser:

http://lifehacker.com/5352193/browser-chooser-asks-you-which-browser-to-open-new-links-in

Pioneer's Kuro Elite: Best flat-panel HDTV ever

The subject of this blog post is a quote from CNET:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-10054347-1.html

A couple of weeks ago my Sony CRT HDTV died. The particular model I had it turns out was extremely prone to failure. Visiting forums, I found them littered with people with issues. In some cases within two or three years after the TV was purchased in the early 2000's. As I did my research I weighed the pros and cons of trying to get the damn thing fixed. It turns an electronics repair place happened to be literally one block away from where I lived and they were well acquainted with the Sony model and its failure problems (a bad sign). They told me it would likely be $350 if it was fixable.

The "if" caught my attention and started me on the path of moving to a flat panel. It was a difficult decision for me since the video fidelity of the CRT was unmatched by flat panels. Even so, based on the reading I did on various forums the CRT could be a lost cause and I didn't want to sink any money on a 250 lb. dead weight.

So two days after its death I visited both Fry's Electronics and Best Buy and I was not impressed with the flat panel HDTVs I saw. Then on the same day on a whim I decided to visit Magnolia Hi-Fi in Seattle. When a salesman approached me I immediately commented that all the HDTVs I had seen that day were mediocre and that I was there hoping to be wowed by an HDTV but that I wasn't holding my breath. Before not too long he asked, "Are you familiar with Pioneer's Elite line?" I nodded. He then said something that immediately raised an eyebrow, "Are you familiar with the Kuro line of displays?" I responded with an affirmative but I also knew Pioneer was no longer making the Kuro line and that that even used they were expensive. Pioneer's Kuro line were reference displays and they blew everything else out of the water when it came to 1080p video fidelity. But as my luck would have it, Magnolia's manager actively tries to find Kuros for 'finicky' people like myself (aka videophiles). I had already seen BluRay playback over HDMI on a 50" Kuro in early 2009 and was utterly and thoroughly impressed (up until then no flat panel had impressed me).

I didn't need to be sold on the Kuro line. I didn't act back then because my Sony CRT was still working and I was extremely content with it given it didn't exhibit the graininess of flat panels when playing non-HD content (there's still a lot of non-HD content out there, e.g., streaming Hulu). I had been hoping the CRT would last me until 2015 when perhaps 50" OLED flat panels were available en masse but that wasn't meant to be.

When the salesman told me they had a brand new 50" Kuro in house, there was nothing else for him to say, I laid down the plastic. Magnolia didn't have a stand for it in stock so I picked it up two weeks later (back ordered). As I made small talk with my sales person I asked him if he still had the other Kuro in stock (they had 2 when I picked mine up) and he said, "I'm not sure but now you have me curious." He dug around in his inventory system and not only was the other one gone but there were 20 individuals who had laid down money at Magnolia stores across the US to get their hands on a Kuro when and if they became available.

The other small detail is that the CNET review is for the Kuro with the TV tuner, the Kuro I purchased doesn't have a built in tuner:

http://www.pioneerelectronics.com/PUSA/Products/HomeEntertainment/PlasmaTVs+Monitors/EliteMonitors/ci.PRO-101FD.Kuro

I'm using the Samsung HD tuner I had been using on the Sony CRT. I pointed out the CNET review since they're a third party singing the praises of the Kuro. It's not uncommon for CNET to make a comparison to the Kuro displays when reviewing a higher end HDTV. However, up to this day, no one has surpassed the Kuro line.

All I can say is, I lucked out and I'm extremely pleased with the Kuro.

A Tale of Two iPads

This NYTimes review sums up the two sentiments that are behind the iPad.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/01/technology/personaltech/01pogue.html?ref=technology

In short, many tech people convince themselves of the lack of the iPad's utility due to comparisons with traditional computers. I might point out that some people privy to the early Internet believed it should not be made readily available to the masses. The reasons were varied but I assure you, the root of some of it was mere technical snobbery.

I completely agree with the New York Times reviewer's assessment, if you are not a tech person, Apple has created the computer for the rest of us. Funny thing is, I decided to do some googling to try to find references to that old Apple slogan but instead I found someone saying exactly what I'm saying here:

http://www.theroot.com/views/techies-are-wrong-about-ipad

The iPad is not even out yet (2 more days) and when you view the applications that are being released for it, it is truly impressive (the Netflix one took me by surprise):

http://gizmodo.com/5507569/gizmodos-essential-ipad-apps

I ask you one simple question - when was the last time you saw such a movement for any other device?

Ha! We beat Apple! (Dream on)

The nay sayers lined up when Apple announced the iPad but arguments such as "I'll get a general tablet so I can run whatever I want" miss the point. The point being these same critics aren't running off to buy a competing device like the HP slate gizmo announced roughly two months prior. In short, the Apple iPad isn't intended for them (barring hot air).

I read an excellent article on Tom'sHardware entitled 5 Reasons Tablets Suck And You Won't Buy One

Point number 4 is key. It should have been number 1, underlined and accentuated with a headline tag <H>. Interface is why previous tablet offerings have been relegated to niche status. Is there a particular reason for this? Yes, Rob Enderle sums it up nicely:

http://technologizer.com/2010/03/08/future-windows/3/

Excerpt:

Now the most successful company as measured by profitability is Apple–who appears to be still locked into the proprietary hardware and software model that proceeded Windows’ success.

The problem with the PC model and the even more complex cell phone OS model was that no one person owned the customer experience. As a result, with the exception of Apple, PC vendors started doing stupid things like not assuring the service experience or putting software that reduced reliability (crapware) on the systems they were selling. In addition, complexity and an excessive focus on cost reductions got out of hand, significantly reducing the perceived quality of the system.

When the iPad's sales numbers are announced in a year (with unit sales in the millions), the usual will happen. Microsoft will feel the need to duplicate Apple's success and will assemble a crack team to provide a competitive offering. Haven't we been here before? Yes. Zune trying to take on the iPod. This after Microsoft's first response to the iPod Plays for Sure completely fell on its face.

Do you see a pattern here? Continual reaction to Apple's market success stories. This all underscores my strong opinion that Microsoft's leadership lacks vision. Steve Jobs despite his warts (he's not the nicest person if rumors are true) is a tech visionary.

Up until now, Microsoft has simply told hardware vendors to slap plain jane Windows on a keyboardless computer. Once again, complacency and myopia hold Microsoft back.